What Should Happen vs What Actually Happens
With your kind teacher Mrs. Brenda ❤️
Today we explore the difference between Theoretical Probability (what math says should happen) and Experimental Probability (what really happens when we do the experiment). The more times we try something, the closer the two get!
What SHOULD happen
Calculated using math
Example: Coin flip = 1/2 = 50%
What ACTUALLY happens
Based on real trials
Example: Flip coin 20 times → maybe 11 heads (11/20 = 55%)
Theoretical Probability of Heads = 1/2 = 50%
Question 1
Theoretical probability of rolling a 3 on a die is 1/6. If you roll it 60 times, about how many 3s do you expect?
Question 2
Why does experimental probability get closer to theoretical probability when we do more trials?
• Weather forecasters use both types
• Sports analysts predict game outcomes
• Companies test products many times
• Scientists repeat experiments
Amazing work! You can now tell the difference and see how they work together.
Keep experimenting — the more you try, the better your predictions become!
Love and lucky high-fives,
Mrs. Brenda ❤️