🎲 Likely and Unlikely Events
Certain (will definitely happen)
The sun will rise tomorrow.
Likely (probably will happen)
It will snow in winter in Canada.
Unlikely (probably will not happen)
You will see a polar bear in your backyard.
Impossible (cannot happen)
A dog will fly like a bird.
🔮 Predicting Outcomes
We can make smart guesses (predictions) using probability.
Example:
You have a bag with 8 red marbles and 2 blue marbles.
If you pick one without looking, it is likely to be red.
🧪 Simple Probability Experiments
We do experiments to test our predictions!
Experiment 1: Coin Flip
Flip a coin 20 times. Predict: about 10 heads and 10 tails.
Experiment 2: Dice Roll
Roll a die 30 times. Predict: each number 1–6 will appear about 5 times.
✏️ Let’s Practice Together, My Dear Student!
Practice 1: Likely or Unlikely?
1. It will rain chocolate. → Impossible
2. You will get a hockey card in a pack. → Likely
3. The sun will not rise tomorrow. → Impossible
Practice 2: Predict the Outcome
A spinner has 4 equal parts: red, blue, green, yellow.
If you spin it 20 times, about how many times will it land on red?
About 5 times (1 out of 4)
Practice 3: Simple Experiment (Canadian Style)
You roll a die 12 times. Predict how many times you will get a 6.
About 2 times (1 out of 6)
Do the experiment at home and compare your prediction with the real result!
Challenge Question
In a bag there are 10 marbles: 7 black and 3 white.
1. Is it likely or unlikely to pick a black marble? Likely
2. If you pick 20 times (with replacement), about how many black marbles? About 14
Fantastic Job, My Dear Student! 🎉
You now understand probability! You can tell if events are likely or unlikely, make predictions, and do simple experiments.
I am so proud of you. Try flipping a coin 20 times at home and record the results — see how close your prediction was!
💕 You are smart. You are kind. You can do hard things.
When you are ready, tell me the next topic and I will create another beautiful lesson just for you!